Weather event reduces risk of bushfire this season but increases risk of flooding, says Bureau of Meteorology
The Bureau of Meteorology said a La Niña event has developed in the Pacific Ocean, which could bring cooler days and more precipitation to much of Australia in the spring and more tropical cyclones in the north of the country
La Niña is the cool phase of the Southern Oscillation of El Niño and associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean
La Niña events usually form in autumn and winter and reach their peak in spring and early summer
The last La Niña took place from 2010 to 2012 and caused widespread flooding and record rainfall Le Bom said his modeling currently suggests the last event will be strong but not reach the same intensity
– This year we are probably not going to have something as extreme as this event, â ???? said Andrew Watkins, director of climate operations
– This one [is] a bit more moderate but that said, be aware of local impacts, flooding, heavy rains and the possibility of storms that could occur at any time during the La Niña period ??? ?
Watkins said La Niña would likely lead to increased precipitation in northern and eastern Australia and increased risk of flooding This also increases the risk of increased cyclone activity during tropical cyclone season , with a typical season of 9 to 11 cyclones
Watkins said the extreme heat Australia has experienced in recent dry summers was less likely to occur this year But the duration of heat waves in South Australia may be longer during the La Niña events because weather systems tend to move more slowly
He said an active La Niña would also slightly reduce the risk of a bushfire this season, but not eliminate it
– La Niña however, with a little extra rain, we hope these fires will stay a bit smaller and a bit shorter than what we’ve seen in recent yearsâ ????
The Bom said on Tuesday that the Indian Ocean dipole was also in negative territory and five of the six models studied indicated that it would remain in negative phase in October
La Niña and a negative dipole in the Indian Ocean generally increase the risk of above-average precipitation over much of Australia in the spring
The current Bom climate outlook indicates the remainder of 2020 will be wetter than average in the eastern two-thirds of Australia
World News – UA – La Niña gears up to bring cooler weather, more rain and cyclones to Australia
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