It seems like the draft was yesterday. That the final was fair . . . The day before yesterday.
After taking so long to finish the 2019-20 season, last year’s newbies are young veterans. our new second class.
But in the back of my mind I was wondering: Will the rapid resumption of NBA basketball have a negative impact on the short-term development of second-tier players?
Professional athletes work at their own pace. Your own cadence. But by 2020-21, NBA players are being asked to hurry up. Play Fantasy Basketball for Free 2020-21 Fantasy Basketball is coming in time for the holidays! Create or join an ESPN Fantasy Basketball League today! Sign up for free!
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Will the second grade produce like quasi-newbies this season (translation: will they disappoint)? Or conversely, is there a scenario for 2020-21 in which young people could be served?
We are facing a lengthy session of ongoing Popovichian cosplay. As in: coaches across the league are in the process of distributing all kinds of load management.
Veterans are being forced to take additional rest sooner. But sophomore veterans don’t need that extra rest. It could be an opportunity for them.
What will keep lottery teams from using 20-25 games to develop their youth in a shortened regular season schedule that really feels like a preamble to the playoffs? (Fascinating to the imagination as RPGuilding teams also happen to be the franchises that have highly skilled sophomores with the highest advantage up their sleeves. )
This is all my way of opening our discussion of my top 10 sophomore fantasy students.
Hachimura logged heavy minutes down the track in August. Consistent score delivered (13. 3 PPG in August).
But unfortunately this Wizards fan has not done enough in any other category (6. 3 RPG, 3. 0 APG, 0. 3 SPG, 0. 2 BPG, 0. 8 3PG) to do more than barely crack ESPN’s preseason top 120.
Hachimura is a tweener and really does show up on defense. In terms of fantasy, that lack of identity is evident in his boxing scores.
He had this annoying tendency to only produce every single game in a secondary category. Editor’s PicksFantasy Basketball: Rookies RankingFantasy Basketball Draft Set: Leaderboards, Slip Drafts, Thresholds, Projections, and Analyzes1 Related
A game? He’d get you a bargain or two. The next game? He had hit a couple of 3s. Once every few games? He would actually block a shot. (Hachimura is a good passerby, so his assistance rate is slightly higher than the production of substitutes per position. )
Oh, and as I write this, my long-suffering Wizards brain is processing the newly minted John Wall-Russell Westbrook deal.
With Westbrook devouring miles of wizarding possessions, it’s hard to see Hachimura improving from last season’s numbers. . . outside of publication, more consistency in its supporting statistics.
And there will be no more minutes available. The wizards designed a good perspective at SF in Deni Avdija, whose head will be impossible to keep on the bench.
I don’t know if Garland has the cap you’d expect from a top 5 selection, but he’s already showing diverse, multi-category production. Extended minutes, a steady roll, and some refinement in his shot selection could work wonders.
At first glance, Garland’s rookie field goal percentage was a disappointing 40. 1%, but in Garland’s case, that anemic percentage masks hidden benefits. Because Garland was one of the rare young guards whose 3-point percentage (35th. 5 3FG%) nearly surpassed his overall field goal percentage, which tells me Garland probably only needs to iron out his section of shot.
Take a look at Basketball Reference and it sure is there: it was bad from 3 to 10 feet and not observable on deep 2s. I hate using this comp and I don’t read into it too much. But it’s a bit like what Damian Lillard had to overcome early in his career.
Darius Garland will never be Damian Lillard. And sexton drives me crazy. His box scores are too short-sighted to be believed.
But Garland has something. He’s only 20. We’ll have to see how the situation with Kevin Porter Jr. . shakes out, but Garland is a nice final flyer in deep leagues.
The advantage is there, both in terms of role (it is a block for more than 30 MPG) and because it can only increase efficiency (47). 9 TS% last season).
There are positive indicators. He finished strong in 2019-20, averaging 17. 2 PPG, 4. 5 RPG and 1. 4 3PG after All-Star Weekend. The Knicks quietly had a reasonably rational off-season.
Consistent logs, a quieter locker room, and improvements in efficiency in the second year are good predictions for the second year. Obi Toppin is going to eat up some touches, but Barrett goes into the season with a clearly defined situation.
Result: Barrett piles up some nice secondary stats from the volume and hits 3. 0-3. Steal 5 blocks for 3s per game. But if he increases his TS% to 50. 0%, he could hit 17. 0 points per game. When the TS% rises close to 55. 0%, he turns 20 on average. 0 PPG.
While Hachimura and Barrett both have a path to more playtime, Johnson’s role is darker – yet I put Johnson in front of them. Why?
Take into account its wide-ranging benefits and you will have a good night’s sleep. An aspiring low risk, medium reward, freshman who would look great on any 12 team leader bench.
Johnson’s diversified statistical portfolio means it doesn’t take long for him to help fantasy teams. The secondary stats give him increased ground to build on. Even if Jae Crowder vacuums the minutes in the forecourt – and Mikal Bridges is already creating competition – Johnson’s third floor is. 5-4. 0 3s steal blocks per game.
Herro is the 2021 edition of a lesser known, not feared fantasy archetype: the playoff spectacle player. Nothing artificially elevates a player’s draft as much as playoff exploits. And Herro’s high-powered playoff rampage had to drive his rating higher.
And then consider this: if you take away one rebound per game, maybe half a 3-pointer, Herro becomes the 2021 edition of another lesser known, not feared fantasy type: the player with empty dots.
Herro is exactly on the line between multicategorically productive and myopic one-dimensional (just another 3-point specialist). .
Also, Herro is the first player on this list to play on a team with serious, low playoff expectations. And on a team with expectations, the arrival of a battle-hardened vet like Avery Bradley isn’t a positive development for Herro’s season.
Even so, we all saw the benefit of that 37-point tantrum he threw against Boston. Top 75 production is possible. Just don’t pay too much for the privilege of finding out if he can get there.
Washington is kind of a more up-to-date version of Hachimura. He’s a tweener, but strong and agile enough to effectively defend multiple positions. He can play the four and has the potential to keep the Fort Draymond style as a center for small balls.
Washington got off to a strong start last season but then ran into a common problem for beginners who were early: he fell victim to his own success. That is, its role was expanded and its efficiency decreased. It’s a common problem for many rookies (as opposed to the mythical, non-existent « Rookie Wall ». « ).
As for the imagination, I light a candle in the hope that James Borrego will get small with impunity. A line-up of Washington, Miles Bridges at PF, Gordon Hayward at SF, Terry Rozier at SG, and LaMelo Ball / Devonte ‘Graham at PG would provide positive statistical dynamics.
Washington has plenty of room to grow. Despite its loss of efficiency in the second half of the year, Washington achieved a decent TS% replacement (54). 7%) for the season. But he posted an anemic 64. 7 FT%. A little spike there, along with the expected boost all hornets of LaMelo’s already elitist judicial vision will get? Cooking with gas.
Pencil in Washington on the 5th and it opens up all kinds of expanded imagination possibilities.
White early rise? Its strong finish? The explosive « look at me » run of boxing scores in February / March? It all reminded me very much of what a certain Agent Zero knocked down in 2002 to complete his rookie campaign.
The ability to judge. The boldness. The fearlessness. The complete lack of hesitation in standing up for the shot anytime, anywhere.
The comparison first struck me in late February when I saw a Wizards Bulls game. White burned Washington’s highly flammable defense with 33 points and 5 3s. He was 6 of 7 off the line. Six rebounds, two steals, and one block were added.
But what really solidified the competition was White’s total inattention to the distribution of the basketball. Midway through the release of his career game, he gave up moving the ball. In the end, White handed out only two templates.
Early arenas also tended to forget that he was a point guard for long, long distances. (Heck, Prime Arenas too. )
Another similarity: the field shooting. And as in the early arenas (and Garland) the 3 point percentage of white (35). 4%) exceeded almost his entire field target percentage (39). 4%).
The key to this season: Can Billy Donovan get White a little more ground generalship? It’s okay for white to be a combo guard who rules the point. He just can’t retreat to play Sagittarius. Bring out that duality of the combo guard, and then Donovan White can start with a clear heart.
Jerami Grant is now a piston. So the decks are clear. For porters, more than 30 minutes per game just sit there.
In a limited sample size, we received an indication of which 30 minutes Michael Porter Jr. . Will get you. The ceiling: 20 PPG, 10 RPG, 2. 0 APG, 1. 0 SPG, 1. 0 BPG, 2. 0 3PG, 60. 0 DM%.
Meaning: Porter is just a nod, a few statistical changes away from the top 40. Just increasing his minutes (and volume) to his rookie numbers almost gets you there.
So what’s not to like? Porter comes up with two hyper-saturated red flags; Warning signs managers should recognize easily.
Red flag No.. 1: Injury history. Porter is only a sophomore NBA student. He missed his entire rookie season with a back injury. He has a long and checkered medical history that dates back to high school. Is that a situation for Blake Griffin? Does Porter become known as just another talented, athletic big guy who plays too hard to stay on the court?
Red flag No.. 2: Defense Effort. Porter isn’t known for his lockdown defensive intensity – which can be reasonably acceptable to young, developing teams as long as you put them on the offensive.
But in the last Western Conference final? Denver was one of Anthony Davis’s winners, who failed to give the eventual champions a real 6-to-7 game fright.
The scratchy youth-outsider phase of the nuggets? about. Done. Denver wants to present itself as the top 3 team in the Western Conference right from the start. (Depending on how Portland comes out of the gate. Top four in the worst case. )
There is a lot at stake. Failure to tighten his Toreador-inspired approach to defense could turn Porter into sixth status.
Poor health and worse D-Cloud Porter’s ability to play a full-time starter for an entire season. But if you’re like me and remember the mile-long four-game run that Porter released in August (29). 3 PPG, 12. 5 RPG, 3. 5 3PG, 1. 3 SPG, 1. 0 BPG), and Porter will stop in your draft until round seven. It will be difficult to get to the entire ceiling to ignore.
I could probably have used enough analytical and rhetorical power to get Zion to a no. 1 move. 1.
Zion carries all the statistical red flags of the most dangerous of all fantasy types: the generation-human highlight role, which presents-in-reality-better-than-fantasy-players.
He’s starting to look more and more like Blake Griffin: a player dealing with overgrown hype and sky-high statistical expectations – who misses out on his boxing scores. The expectations and the fantasy production do not match.
In terms of efficiency: poor free throw percentage. As a rookie, Zion only hit 64% of his free throws. That is a big problem. Because top 30 production to post? So that the real worth of Zion matches its evaluation? Williamson has to do better. Like 80% good off the line.
Because Zion, as a rookie, did not increase his rating with an elite 3-point production; its meager 0. 7 3PG was a big problem.
In addition to the offensive shortage, Williamson failed to develop strong sources of production within the defensive categories. That was disappointing because his college numbers had a strong defensive history.
At Duke, Zion posted solid defense counting stats (2). 1 steals, 1. 8 blocks). But that story went to MIA in Williamson’s rookie season. Williamson struggled to keep his block theft rate even above a meager 1. 0 per game.
As a rookie, Williamson barely cracked the top 100 players in fantasy basketball, even tying his worth to per-game stats. As of this writing, his ADP is 22.
Intentionality: Based on the only tough stats we have, Williamson gets stretched 60-70 points. Do you even consider a generous improvement in the second year (more 3s, blocks and steals and better FT%)? Williamson only cracks the top 40.
Despite all of these improvements, it still projects as a lightweight design bust. The fantasy does not correspond to the reality.
Zion has been more enthusiastic than any other sophomore since LeBron. It’s so exciting to see him. But, like Griffin, it can take several seasons for its real value to be reflected in a more realistic ADP.
Morant is currently on a sky-high 28 ADP. But he has a much better chance of paying off that rating than Williamson.
Morant has the same transcendent superstar potential as Williamson. But he doesn’t have to fight his way through nearly as much hype. As a rookie, Morant lived up to his expectations for goal (18). 1 PPG), supported (7. 3 APG) and rebounds (3. 9 RPG).
He also managed to get production at the substitute level in terms of shooting efficiency. Its 47th. 7 FG%, 33. 6 3FG and 77. 6 FT% together result in an absolutely acceptable value of 55. 6 DM%. As a sophomore, it only takes a modest increase in the 3-point percentage and higher volume on 3-point and free-throw attempts to get closer to the top 30 score.
Just like Williamson, Morant has all kinds of room to grow in the defensive counting stats. Morant couldn’t crack 1. 0 steals as a rookie (0. 9 SPG). Ultimately, to get his elite rating, Morant will have to effectively double his rookie steal rate.
In the end, Morant ousted Williamson for No.. 1 slot for a very simple reason: Morant has a much, much higher chance of actually justifying his high ADP.
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans, Basketball, Duke Blue Devils Men’s Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski, Stan Van Gundy
World News – AU – Second Year Fantasy Basketball: Is Ja Morant or Zion Williamson at the top?
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