World News – GB – Presidential debates: memorable moments combine truth and myth – Up News Info

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US President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden go head-to-head for the first of three debates scheduled for Tuesday, an event that is sure to produce a number of highlights

During the 2016 debates with Hillary Clinton, Trump inspired memes with his “puppet-less” denial of Russian influence, and his claim that “someone sitting on their bed weighing 400 pounds” could have being the source of cyberattacks targeting Democrats has often been cited

Presidential debates, although often entertaining, are above all an opportunity for voters to energize themselves and learn about the problems. But as early as 1976, at the beginning of the history of televised presidential debates, an NBC News poll. Boston Globe reported that only three percent of those polled said the debates changed their vote

Debates take place too late in the campaign to generally make a huge dent in the final election result, says political science professor James Stimson

« There is no instance where we can trace a substantial shift in the debates, » writes Stimson in Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics He argues that conventions generally have more consequences when they are ‘It’s about moving polls rather than debate, based on nearly 40 years of poll data

Early debates turned out to be a particularly poor electoral indicator The candidate seen as the winner of the first debate in Gallup polls only won the presidency four out of 12 times

Which is not to say that debates don’t matter, just that their impact is difficult to isolate Television reports often graft memorable moments of debate onto retrospective packages of past elections, which there are had a real link with the result or not Here’s a look at some of those moments:

Democratic candidate John F Kennedy looked tanned and young during the first televised presidential debates in 1960, while Vice President Richard Nixon, who accidentally applied a product called Lazy Shave to cover his five o’clock shadow, looked pale and sweaty

It’s a great story, but according to political science professors Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson, Kennedy’s poll average at the start of the first debate was commensurate with the support he got in the election.

There is also a repeated account that Nixon was the preferred choice of debate radio listeners Joseph Campbell in Getting It Wrong: Ten of the Greatest Misreported Stories in American Journalism and academics such as David Vancil and Sue Pendell in 1987 detailed to what extent this narrative was fueled by anecdotal reports

In a known market study of self-identified radio listeners, it was not clear that the small sample was representative in terms of factors such as geography or religious beliefs Choosing Lyndon Johnson of Texas as running mate was probably more important to Kennedy

For his part, Nixon chose not to debate Hubert Humphrey (1968) and George McGovern (1972) The fact that he was marked by the experience of 1960 or that he saw the debate as a winless scenario given its lead in the polls is subject to speculation

The defining TV moment of 1976 came when then-President Gerald Ford insisted in the second October debate 6 that « there is no Soviet domination over Eastern Europe »

A serious blunder for journalists and politicians alike, but there is no evidence in debate polls that voters paid much attention Americans were facing a recession, high inflation, rising prices gasoline prices and some of the worst ever US crime rates – the fate of Poland and Hungary in the shadow of a global nuclear power was probably not very important

Moreover, the Gallup poll on September 30 showed Jimmy Carter enjoying an 11 point advantage in the polls, and on October 12, six days after Ford’s blunder, it was just two L points state of the race has not radically changed after a third debate

Ford was trailed in a 33-point poll this summer, but Carter would then make a few missteps and his own verbal mistakes on the election trail

Ford lost the election with just 57 constituency votes and two percentage points His debate slippage overshadowed the fact that he was within earshot of an incredible comeback

Legislative changes in the 1970s helped ensure the regularity of presidential debates, but negotiations between the principals were strained in 1980 There was only one Carter-Ronald Reagan debate, held just one week before the elections

During the debate, candidates differed in their responses to questions about handling the hostage crisis in Iran, Carter also sought to paint the Republican’s positions as superficial and inconsistent, but his persistent needling at one point leads a smiling Reagan to shrug: « 

Reagan then concluded his evening by asking Americans, « Are you better off than four years ago? »

This finding was favored 45-33 over Carter’s in a poll, with the Harris poll showing that among respondents who clearly saw a winner in the debate was Reagan 44-26

With little means for Carter to bounce back before Election Day, the debate was widely viewed by academics as having an impact on expanding what had until then been a close race.The drift towards Reagan continued, leading to a nine percentage point victory and 440 college electoral votes

As Reagan projected his strength into the debate, the issue of US hostages in Iran was more nuanced than is generally described As detailed in Rick Perlstein’s book Reaganland, the 17% in exit polls who thought hostages were the main problem said they voted for Carter by a 2-1 margin

Moderator Bernard Shaw didn’t waste on softballs in the second and final debate of 1988, asking Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis above: « Governor, if Kitty Dukakis was raped and murdered, would you be? in favor of an irrevocable death penalty for the killer? ”

Dukakis, the governor of Massachusetts, responded in a manner consistent with his long-held position that capital punishment was not a deterrent while highlighting the decline in violent crime rates in his state. response was viewed by journalists as clinical and unbiased

Dukakis later told frequent debate moderator Jim Lehrer that the question had been raised « about a thousand times » during his political career »Unfortunately, I answered it as if I had been asked a thousand times, » he said in Lehrer’s 2011 book Tension City

In the account of that election, Dukakis’ response with a disturbing George H. The Bush campaign ad about a Massachusetts prisoner who committed a violent sexual assault while on leave often featured prominently

But Bush was already up several points in the polls before entering the debate after following Dukakis in early summer

Meanwhile, the ad was not widely seen and was amplified by media coverage largely after Bush took the lead in the poll, writes John Sides, professor at George Washington University.

In exit polls, Bush was the overwhelming choice of voters on all economic issues The death penalty response did Dukakis a disservice, but he was likely facing an insurmountable deficit

The liberal use of a split screen effect during the first presidential debate in 2000 allowed viewers to fully enjoy Al Gore’s sighs and rolled eyes as he was enraged by George W Bush’s responses

« We must have tried to laugh about it But really, it hurt us, » Gore adviser Tad Devine said in a 2016 New York Times debate oral history titled Debacle

A funny thing about it, though, two polls in the hours after the debate saw Gore winning above and beyond the margin of error, with a third poll essentially tied.Despite this, it has become commonly accepted among experts that the performance hurt Gore

Political scientists D Sunshine Hillygus and Simon Jackman have postulated that political realities can be publicized, whether by television pundits or, now, on social media

« … debate watchers thought Gore won the first and third debates, but people not watching the debates increasingly believed that Bush won these debates – perhaps in response to media interpretations Gore’s smiles and sighs, « academics said

In any case, blaming Gore’s contested electoral defeat in the Supreme Court on the first debate, if not debates in general, is a tricky business, given that he won the popular vote by 500,000

The first presidential debate of 2012 proved to be the most impactful despite the lack of a signing moment on the order of Mitt Romney’s inartful and even-inspiring « file cabinets full of women » in the second debate, or when Barack Obama mocked Romney in the third debate for declaring that Russia was the US’s « No. 1 geopolitical enemy »

Obama has been leading in almost every poll since June, but White House adviser David Axelrod did not feel safe

« We were always worried about the first debate because it is historically a deathfield for presidents, » Axelrod wrote in Believer: My Forty Years in Politics 2015, citing a common reluctance of occupied presidents to introduce themselves to prepare for the debate

Obama did indeed come out flat after the first debate in the eyes of experts, his team and viewers Polls clearly won Romney’s victory

“It wasn’t one of those classic debate blunders: Richard Nixon wiped his sweaty forehead; Michael Dukakis’ robotic response, « but it was clearly noticeable, wrote CNN’s Maeve Reston, capturing the consensus

Election polls quickly swung drastically in Romney’s favor, but Obama bounced back in the next two debates, where he was seen as more at ease

“Of course the [first] debate didn’t change the outcome… But it really mattered in that it changed the dynamics of the rest of the contest,” Stimson wrote. “If Obama hadn’t been improved in the second and third debates, defeat would have been a likely outcome « 

US Presidential Debates, Debate, Donald Trump, Joe Biden

News from around the world – GB – Presidential debates: Memorable moments mix truth and myth – Up News Info


SOURCE: https://www.w24news.com

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