World News – UK – Quick catch: Rising consumer confidence could boost Trump vote


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(Reuters) – Voters feel more optimistic about the economy as they weigh their choices in the upcoming US presidential election, which could give President Donald Trump a boost in his battle against the Democratic candidate in the presidential election Joe Biden, who leads in the polls

US Consumer confidence rebounded more than expected in September, posting its biggest monthly gain in 17 years, thanks to perceived improvement in the job market, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday

The percentage of households saying jobs are « plentiful » rose to 229% from 214%, the Conference Board said, from 20% who found jobs hard to get

« This could be good news for Trump – the better people think about the economy, the more they vote for the incumbent president, » said Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard

Confident consumers are more likely to part with their money rather than save it, and rising household spending is boosting the economy

An earlier confidence measure, however, gives Biden the edge: In an election year, July’s measure of consumer confidence is more predictive than September’s, Blitz said Readings under 98 are strongly correlated with a victory for the out-of-power party candidate July reading was 917

The coronavirus recession is unlike any other, making voting predictions based on economic data particularly difficult The slowdown has been sharper and deeper than expected, and the recovery has so far been faster than expected

Yet the job market is in a deep hole The economy has recovered around half of the jobs lost since the coronavirus crisis began, and job losses are uneven, with low-wage workers being the hardest hit About 26 million US residents continue to depend on some form of unemployment insurance

Voters will have another chance to judge the job market on Friday, when the US government releases its monthly jobs report, the last general official reading on US jobs before the Nov 3 election

Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Pennsylvania

Global news – UK – Fast catch: Rising consumer confidence could boost Trump vote



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