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One of the biggest games of the weekend will be played at the San Paolo Stadium as first-placed AC Milan travel to Naples to face Napoli, who have won five of the six games they have played (he got a 3-0 lost defeat in a match against Juventus that they had to give up due to COVID issues).
The international break is making these games increasingly difficult to judge, but it should still be a fun competition.
Napoli got off to a strong start to the season, scooping 15 out of a possible 18 points in the games they have played. Gli Azzurri’s only loss came to an up-and-coming Sassuolo side in an unfortunate 2-0 defeat. In this match, Napoli won the battle for the expected goals (xG), 2. 14 to 1. 52.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an extended statistic that provides information about whether the results are based on sustainable factors such as the constant creation of goal chances or whether they are aspects such as luck or excellent goalkeepers.
The really surprising part of Napoli’s success was the defensive side of the ball. While the competition wasn’t too difficult, it only cashed in 0. 66 xG against per game is by far the best grade in Serie A.. . Even when they played against Atalanta, Napoli kept them at just 0. 64 xG.
Napolis 1. 81 xG per game sounds impressive, but it only puts them on a par with Sassuolo and is way behind the top Serie A teams at the start of the season. . Another problem is that, compared to his colleagues at the top of the table, Napoli has more problems taking advantage of the opportunities they create.
In addition, the new striker Victor Osimhen is out with a shoulder injury. I wouldn’t say it’s a fatal blow to their chances, but I think it’s remarkable. He was good and led the team at 3. 19 xG created by six games. Osimhen is physical and holds up well too. In a game this close, his absence could mean the difference between a draw and a loss.
AC Milan are at the top of the Serie A table with five wins and two draws from their first seven games. That is quite an achievement considering that Milan are balancing their Serie A schedule with a full program for the Europa League.
The Rossoneri are second in the league with an average of 2. 51 xG per game and even when they struggle to create opportunities, Milan have an effective plan B by playing direct football with the timeless Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the helm. Milan can beat you in open play and Ibrahimovic is still a nuisance when it comes to set pieces. So this is an even team that has a really hard time staying away from the game report.
One thing to keep in mind is that Zlatan was able to rest while many of Europe’s top players have been on international service for the past few weeks. That might be key as he looked a little tired from Milan’s recent competitions.
Defensively, the Rossoneri do pretty well. They only allowed seven goals on 9. 16 expected goals against in the first seven games. Your 1. 31 xG per game isn’t great, but their shiny offensive numbers provide cover for a defense that’s good and not great.
I think Napoli’s defensive numbers flatter them a little so I expect AC Milan’s offensive to be successful enough to make this a competition. At 2 o’clock. 75 (which is an Asian handicap, which means half of your stake goes over 2. 5 and the other half to over 3), I think that sum is within reach because I am confident that Napoli’s offense will land on the board as well.
I don’t see AC Milan losing this game as many times as the odds suggest, so I would put them on the 0 spread. 5 and would also consider spreading the money line at 215.
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A. . C.. . Milan, S.. . S.. . C.. . Napoli, Serie A, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Stefano Pioli
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