From now until the end of summer, the NBA owns Monday nights. With regular season football in the rearview mirror, today’s nine-game table is led by a fun matchup of Western Conference teams from the great state of Texas: Dallas Mavericks vs.. . Houston Rockets.
This game is influenced by injury news (more on that here), but our experts are also looking for value in four other games.
Brandon Anderson: Some days I just don’t feel like playing around with spreads. The Heat and 76ers both play as big favorites (-400 each at the time of writing) against bad teams at home and I’m looking for an easy win.
The Heat has been one of the best home teams in the league for the past few years, and The Thunder is by far the worst team in the West. With Jimmy Butler back on the line, the heats are basically at full strength
The 76ers were a completely different team at home than they were on the road last season and will meet Hornets in Philly on Monday. The Hornets have been solid so far but are not expected to fight for the playoffs. If Cody Zeller fails, Bismack Biyombo will be left to compete with Joel Embiid. Embiid loves going up against poor, superior opponents, and it feels like a game where he can do whatever he wants, anytime.
Anything can happen in the NBA, and we’ve seen a lot of big problems. The Hornets and Thunder are playing hard and with both lines on the edge of double digits it wouldn’t be a shock to see both teams stay in single digits. But I trust two solid competitors who are great at home for doing business. So I’m just going to spend the money lines here and let them win whichever way they get there.
A moneyline parlay is playing at around -178 at the time of writing. If a tip moves those lines towards the underdog, I may instead piss off those teams and put a few points on each to improve their chances of winning.
I can throw in a simple money line for dollars there too, although those odds are so high that the added risk is probably not worth the minimal reward. Actually the dealer’s choice but I’m looking to Miami and Philly to deal with bad teams tonight and not want to mess with the high covers.
Matt Moore: Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages, welcome to the greatest show of all!
Since Stevens took over the Celtics, Boston has been 44:19 against the spread (69). 8%) on the second night of a back to back as an outsider. The only season they did not pass . 500 at this point? The cursed season with Kyrie Irving in 2018-19.
The Raptors are now 29 this season. Offensive scoring. Their defense was solid and the fifth best in the league. However, they play a much more traditional defense after losing Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol.
The Raptors have played a traditional drop scheme far more often than last this season – about three times more per game. They’re in the top 5 across the league when it comes to drop coverage.
This works against most teams, but Jayson Tatum scored 1. 259 points per possession vs.. . Drop coverage this season (85. Percentile) and Jaylen Brown plays the best offensive basketball of his career.
Matt Moore: I delved into pelican defense over the weekend. They changed their scheme under Stan Van Gundy. You play a current report and secure yourself with the screener’s man. This helps in curbing pick and roll.
This season they only allow 0. 653 points per possession for the ball handler on pick and roll, which is the second best mark in the league. (It helps if two people are defending the ball handler)
Unfortunately, if you are defending the ball handler with two players, it means someone is open. Not many of the Pacers’ opponents played to date this season, but the Knicks used it on a handful of possessions. It didn’t go well.
But the big key is Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis will tear open this cover by peeling off and then coming out. Sabonis shoots 57% behind the bow and distributes 6. 7 templates per game. He should destroy this reporting.
This reporting works when the offensive team depends on the ball handler’s rating. And while Malcolm Brogdon has been incredible this season, the Pacers are a great passing team, finishing fourth in points per possession on spot-up attempts. You can swing the ball and find the open man.
The pelicans occupy the 21st. Place in the offensive classification with a scheme that is prone to this team and are preferred. It’s a prime spot for the Pacers. It would be better with the injured TJ Warren, but that’s good enough. I like a number of props in this matchup: Sabonis over 5. 5 templates, Sabonis over 20. 5 points, Myles Turner over 13. 5 points. I also play the Pacers money line and spread it.
Joe Dellera: The Pacers take the pelicans in as short street dogs and have recovered well in the absence of T.. J. . Warren (left foot surgery).
While Warren is a valuable starter and rotation player, his value almost increased because of his play in the NBA bubble last summer. It has a positive effect on the floor and has a 3. 1 point difference in all constellations with him per cleaning of the glass. However, in all lineups with him off the field, the Pacers have an 8. 4 point differential.
One of the key takeaways for the Pacers without Warren is that they actually improve their seventh best eFG% of 56. 3% (from Sunday night) and have a grade of 57. 4% per cleaning of the glass. The impact of the Indiana coaching change is demonstrated by the Pacers taking the most shots from the edge, some of the fewest in the league from midfield and just above the league average behind the arch.
This goes well with the pelicans who allow the third highest (i.e. worst) percentage of shooting on the edge and the most 3-point attempts per game in the league (43). 7) even though they effectively close them. The Pacers, despite their improved defense under Stan Van Gundy, shouldn’t be fighting to score against the Pelicans.
The bigger problem in this game is the perishing of the pelicans. It looked absolutely anemic and only ranks 20th according to the NBA Advanced Stats. Place in the offensive rating. Although there are some signs of life based on the location of the pelicans, eFG% (53. 1%), which exceeds their actual value (51. 2%) they could not score by almost three percentage points from the 3-point range.
The Pacers cap 3s at the second highest rate in the league, and between the Pelicans who fire 3-point shots and the Pacers who cap them, this could be quite a math problem for Van Gundy’s squad. The Pacers are undervalued here, and I take them to do business in New Orleans.
DISCLAIMER: This website is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not include real money bets.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
NBA, Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors
World News – USA – Our 4 favorite NBA bets for Monday night
. . Related Titles :
– Fantasy Executive’s Daily NBA Rundown& – Odds, Bets and Games for Monday the 4th. January
– NBA betting odds & Selection: The favorite bets of our Staff& # 39; for Monday& # 39; s 76ers vs.. . Heat, pacemaker vs.. . Pelicans, more games (Jan. . . .
Donnez votre point de vue et aboonez-vous!
Votre point de vue compte, donnez votre avis
[maxbutton id= »1″]